Human and Structural Vulnerability Assessment for Emergency Planning in a Future Eruption of Vesuvius, Italy
May 1998 - April 2000
Supported by EC Environment and Climate Programme 1994/98

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People
Project Description
Project-Related Publications and Posters

People

Peter Baxter
Robin Spence
William Fawcett
In collaboration with the University of Pisa and the University of Naples.

Peter Baxter and students conducting building surveys in Boscoreale, on the southeastern slopes of Vesuvius, in order to assess vulnerability to pyroclastic flow impacts.

As well, recent CURBE studies of the Montserrat eruption have indicated that the principal factor influencing the survival both of the buildings and their inhabitants during pyroclastic flows is the extent to which hot ash infiltrates the buildings. The field study around Vesuvius therefore concentrated on assembling data on the position, size, design and performance of openings, using as large and as representative a sample of buildings as possible. Using survey techniques developed by Cambridge Architectural Research Ltd. in previous vulnerability surveys, an approach was developed by which rapid data collection was possible. The study may be the first detailed vulnerability survey carried out specifically to assess vulnerability to pyroclastic flow impacts.

The survey results were used in conjunction with numerical models produced by the University of Pisa of the physical characteristics (horizontal and vertical profiles of pressure, velocity and temperature) of a few well-defined pyroclastic flow events, and data on the resistance of openings, to assess likely physical impacts of these events on the buildings and on any inhabitants not evacuated. The outcomes provided inputs into the local emergency plans and contributed to a more detailed localised assessment of risk which could be used by the local civil protection committee for planning protection measures.

Project-Related Publications and Posters

Exploris: Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes
December 2002 - June 2006 (COMPLETED)
Funded by the European Union’s research programme Energy Environment and Sustainable Development.

Contents

People
Project Description

The hazards of volcanological field work: Traffic jam along the rim of Sete Cidades volcano in the Azores.
(Copyright Ilan Kelman 2003.)

People

Peter Baxter, Robin Spence, Ilan Kelman, Guillermo Toyos, Keiko Saito , Erica callegro (UCAM team), in collaboration with nine other institutions led by Professor Augusto Neri at the University of Pisa.

Discussing the vulnerability of Candelária, São Miguel on site. From left to right: Peter Baxer, Robin Spence, David Purser, and Ana Gomes.
(Copyright Ilan Kelman 2003.)

For further details, see the Exploris website.

Problems to be solved
The world’s population has become increasingly concentrated in large conurbations at high risk from volcanic hazards. European cities on explosive volcanoes and volcanic islands are particularly threatened by pyroclastic flows and tephra fall. Quantification of the risk associated with a range of eruption scenarios, the risk’s potential impact, and risk mitigation are priorities. This project addresses these issues by advancing scientific and technological capabilities (e.g. simulation codes, vulnerability databases, and risk protocols) needed for volcanic risk assessment and mitigation. The project will apply the techniques and methods to four European volcanoes representing a high risk: Vesuvius, Italy; La Soufrière, Guadeloupe, France; Sete Cidades, Azores, Portugal; and Teide, Canary Islands, Spain. The aim is to provide examples of the capabilities for supporting officials in deciding development and planning priorities as well as decision-making during volcanic crises.

Scientific objectives and approach
The main objective of the project consists in the quantitative analysis of explosive eruption risk in densely-populated E.U. regions and the evaluation of the likely effectiveness of possible mitigation measures. Such measures include land-use planning, engineering interventions for buildings and infrastructure, emergency planning, and community preparedness. Volcanic risk facilities--such as supercomputer simulation models, vulnerability databases, and probabilistic risk assessment protocols--will be developed and demonstrated through application to high-risk European volcanoes. The specific objectives are:

1. Define quantitative volcanological scenarios for the most dangerous European volcanoes.


2. Develop massively parallel supercomputer models for the simulation of pyroclastic flow and fallout dispersal in 3D.


3. Develop vulnerability databases for buildings, infrastructure, and inhabitants.


4. Quantify the potential impact of the eruptive events.


5. Define potential mitigation measures.


6. Develop and apply probabilistic risk assessment protocols.


7. Transfer the project findings to civil protection authorities in order to provide policy-relevant information.

The approach adopted aims at gathering and combining knowledge deriving from different fields in order to provide a strategic multidisciplinary set of expertise. Competence in field volcanology, geology, physical modelling, applied mathematics, fluid-dynamics, computer science, engineering, architecture, medicine, and risk analysis are all involved in the project, representing a unique opportunity to improve European and international capabilities to undertake the complex task of volcanic risk management.

Expected impacts
3D simulation codes, vulnerability databases, and probabilistic risk assessment protocols are concrete volcanic risk facilities, to be delivered by the project, that could be easily applied to other volcanic regions. Therefore, a possible exploitation of project results will be the application of the facilities developed to other high-risk volcanoes worldwide. The project also contributes directly to improve the quality of life of millions of people in high-risk European regions through the establishment of safer living conditions. In particular, the assessment of volcanic risk on a probabilistic basis, as well as the identification of possible mitigation measures, shall help in defining mitigation policies aimed at risk reduction for cities on volcanoes and volcanic islands.

Above the clouds: Mount Teide, Tenerife which has erupted frequently in recent centuries and aeons.
(Copyright Ilan Kelman 2004.)

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