CURBE's flood projects: Coastal Settlements at Risk: A Study of England’s East Coast (1999-2002) The Big Flood: An International Scientific Meeting on North Sea Storm Surges (23 May 2003) Flood Fatalities	Cambridgeshire, U.K. floods, February 2001. (Copyright Ilan Kelman 2001.)

Coastal Settlements at Risk: A Study of England’s East Coast
July 1999 - September 2002

Contents People Background Project Aims Case Study Sites Storm Surge Modelling Residential Building Vulnerability Conclusions Contact Project-Related Publications
	Floods in England during Autumn 2000. (Copyright Ilan Kelman 2000.)

People

Robin Spence (Principal Investigator, PhD Supervisor)
Tom Spencer (PhD Supervisor)
Iris Möller (PhD Supervisor)
Frank Thomalla (Project Manager)
James Brown (PhD Student)
Ilan Kelman (PhD Student)

Please contact Ilan with enquiries about this project

The project was a joint endeavour of the Martin Centre (Department of Architecture) and the Cambridge Coastal Research Unit (Department of Geography) and was sponsored by Halifax General Insurance Services Limited.

Background

The research at the Cambridge Coastal Research Unit (CCRU) is working on the development of an integrated modelling strategy for the investigation of the physical susceptibility of each case study site to flooding. The model considers the combined effects of astronomical tide, storm surge, wind-wave processes, non-linear interactions and the physical environment of the coastal zone and is capable of representing both the generation of a flood wave and its propagation inland. Flood scenarios are being developed for a wide range of meteorological events.

Previous attempts to model coastal flooding have either employed a complex (dynamical) representation of the storm surge with no explicit representation of flooding and drying (operational Storm Surge Models (SSM)) or a dynamical representation of flooding with a simple (statistical) representation of the storm surge (e.g. insurance industry models). Both of these approaches have significant disadvantages. In particular, although operational SSM have provided some useful data on sea state conditions for flood warning and coastal engineering, they remain unsuitable for storm impact studies, which require detailed information about the flood depths and velocities that are likely to be experienced inland. In contrast, while insurance industry models have been designed specifically to predict flood losses in the coastal zone, they have, at best, not been able to fully capture the complex hydrodynamical processes that operate during a storm surge and, at worst, completely ignored the important role of dynamical interactions between floodplain boundary conditions and flow characteristics in determining the propagation of a flood wave. This study attempts to circumvent the problems inherent in these traditional approaches, by employing an integrated (linked) modelling strategy, whereby each component of the physical system (storm surge, defence breaches, flood wave) is resolved with an appropriate (numerical or statistical) model.

Output of water depths from a simulated 200-metre sea defence breach in the north of Canvey Island.
(Produced by James Brown 2002.)

• Full results, summaries, and updates of this work.


• Tales From the River Bank, giving practical advice on preparing and recovering from a flood, by Fran Parry who has survived three floods in ten years (16 kb in Rich Text Format which should open in most versions of Word and WordPerfect).

The research undertaken at the Martin Centre examined the physical flood vulnerabilities of residential buildings (houses and flats) in eastern England. To complement the extensive knowledge of damage from slow-rise flood depth, this study investigated damage from the lateral pressure from flood depth differential between the inside and outside of a residence and flood velocity.

Field surveys in the case study sites determined characteristics of the physical vulnerability of residences in these locations to floods. A first-order analysis developed a "flood failure flowchart" to indicate the failure modes of most prominent concern to be analysed in detail:

• The rate of rise of flood water inside a residence, to establish that pressure differentials could damage the residence.
• Analysis of glass failure, focused on large, low units in doors.
• Analysis of wall failure, focused on cavity walls of unreinforced masonry.

The observations and calculations were applied to developing a new form of vulnerability profiling: two-dimensional "vulnerability matrices" with flood depth differential along one axis, flood velocity along the other axis, and the matrix cells displaying a damage outcome.

The vulnerability matrices were used to illustrate possible disaster management tools. The "loss equivalent percentage" method of describing quantitative risk was presented for simulated storm surge scenarios on Canvey Island based on results from the hydrodynamic models. Qualitative decision-making tools and analysis strategies for residence flood vulnerability management were also discussed.

The results apply specifically to modern residences in England because those were the residences observed in the field surveys. The techniques and methods nevertheless could be used for similar analyses for other locations, other residence types, and other disasters. This study provides new knowledge and methods which contribute to understanding, describing, and managing society’s risk to natural disasters.

A creek flows through a house in Malton, North Yorkshire, on 8 November 2000.
(Copyright Ilan Kelman 2000.)

For further information please contact Ilan Kelman.

Kelman, I. 2003. "To seal or not to seal: Do human and physical geographies conflict in flood management for individual properties?". Research paper presentation in the session "Geographical Solutions to Flooding Problems in the U.K." (convener Andrew Black) at Geography, Serving Society and the Environment, International Annual Conference 2003 of the RGS-IBG (Royal Geographical Society and The Institute of British Geographers), London, U.K., 3-5 September.

Kelman, I. 2005. "Decision-making for Flood-threatened Properties". Chapter in S. Begum, J. Hall, and M. Stive (eds.), Flood Risk Management in Europe: Innovation in Policy and Practice, book series on Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research, Kluwer, Dordrecht, the Netherlands, in press.

Kelman, I and R. Spence. 2003. "A Flood Failure Flowchart for Buildings". Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers--Municipal Engineer, vol. 156, issue ME3, pp. 207-214. This paper was awarded the James Hill Prize for the best paper published in the journal that year.

Kelman, I and R. Spence. 2003. "A Limit Analysis of Unreinforced Masonry Failing Under Flood Water Pressures". Masonry International, vol. 16, no. 2 (Summer/May), pp. 51-61.

Kelman, I and R. Spence. 2004. "An Overview of Flood Actions on Buildings". Engineering Geology, vol. 73, issues 3-4 (June) pp. 297–309.

Kelman, I. and R. Spence. 2002. "Understanding Flood Hazards and Vulnerabilities: New Approaches to Comprehensive Flood Risk Assessment in the UK". Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol. 4, session NH3.01 Risk Assessment and Mapping: Flood Risk Assessment and Mapping at the 27th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Nice, France, 21-26 April 2002.

Kelman, I. and R. Spence. 2002. "Vulnerabilities of Residential Buildings in England to the Physical Forces Imposed by Floods". Geophysical Research Abstracts, vol. 4, session NH5 Natural Hazards Impact on Urban Areas and Infrastructure at the 27th General Assembly of the European Geophysical Society, Nice, France, 21-26 April 2002.

Kelman, I., F. Thomalla, J. Brown, I. Möller, R. Spence, and T. Spencer. 2002. "Coastal Flood-Risk Assessment in England". Poster 20 in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, vol. A360, no. 1796, pp. 1553-1554.

Thomalla, F., J. Brown, I. Kelman, I. Möller, R. Spence, and T. Spencer. 2002. "Towards An Integrated Approach for Coastal Flood Impact Assessment", pp. 142-158 in Proceedings of the Solutions to Coastal Disasters Conference, American Society for Civil Engineers (ASCE), San Diego, California, 24-27 February 2002.

Thomalla, F., J. Brown, I Kelman, I Möller, R. Spence, and T. Spencer. 2000. "Coastal Settlements at Risk: A Study of England’s East Coast", pp. F-263 to F-273 in Volume 1 of F. Toensmann and M. Koch (eds.), River Flood Defence (Proceedings of the International Symposium on River Flood Defence), 20-23 September 2000, Universität Gesamthochschule Kassel, Kassel Reports of Hydraulic Engineering No. 9/2000, Herkules Verlag, Kassel, Germany.

Thomalla, F., J. Brown, I. Kelman, I. Möller, R. Spence and T. Spencer. 2000. "Coastal Settlements at Risk: A Study of England's East Coast". Poster presentation at TSUNAMI: What Science can do for Insurance (A Joint Conference for the Insurance Industry and the Scientific Research Community), held 10-11 April 2000 at The Royal Society, London.

Thomalla, F., J. Brown, I. Kelman, I. Möller, R. Spence and T. Spencer. 2000. "Coastal Settlements at Risk: A Study of England’s East Coast". Poster presentation at Natural Hazards and the No-Risk Society organised by the Institute of Ideas and the Benfield Greig Hazard Research Centre at University College London, Gower Street, London on 7 July 2000.

Thomalla, F., J. Brown, I. Kelman, and R. Spence. 2002. "Storm Surge flooding on Canvey Island, UK: An Integration of Urban Flood Modelling and Assessments of Residential Building Vulnerability". Journal of Coastal Research, SI 36, International Coastal Symposium, Templepatrick, Northern Ireland, 25-29 March 2002.

The Big Flood: North Sea Storm Surges
An International Scientific Meeting at the Royal Society (London)
23 May 2003

Many thanks to our sponsors, speakers, audience, committee, and colleagues who made the Big Flood a fantastic success!

• The timetable, programme, speaker abstracts, and speaker information (58 kb in Rich Text Format which should open in most versions of Word and WordPerfect).

• Presentations available from the meeting, courtesy of FloodRiskNet.

• Images from the meeting (potentially long download time due to approximately 1.5 MB of images on the page).

• List of participants in RTF (8 kb in Rich Text Format which should open in most versions of Word and WordPerfect) and in PDF (70 kb in PDF which requires Adobe Acrobat to read).

One-page announcement.
(380 kb in Word Format)

On the night of 31 January to 1 February 1953, a storm surge in the southern North Sea resulted in catastrophic flooding on the coasts of England and the Netherlands, claiming over 2,000 lives. Although sea defences were subsequently strengthened and raised in both countries, and no comparable event has happened since, the threat of another major disaster has not been eliminated. The risk today may have increased due to sea-level rise resulting from climate change, the age of sea defences, extensive development in vulnerable areas, and a lack of awareness of flood vulnerability. By bringing together different fields and skills, The Big Flood indicated not only strengths and weaknesses in fundamental research but also how research results could be translated into practical outputs for industry, policy makers, and the public.

Gap in the North Sea defences for beach access at Winterton-on-Sea, Norfolk.
(Copyright Ilan Kelman 2000.)

• The timetable, programme, speaker abstracts and speaker information (58 kb in Rich Text Format which should open in most versions of Word and WordPerfect).

• Presentations available from the meeting, courtesy of FloodRiskNet.

Presentations: North Sea storm surge impacts

With closing remarks by Professor Lord Julian Hunt (University College London and Delft University of Technology).

The proceedings of the Big Flood will be published in Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. The special issue is currently in press for 2005. Allan McRobie and Tom Spencer from the Organising Committee are coordinating publication.

The Big Flood is organised by CURBE (Cambridge University Centre for Risk in the Built Environment) and sponsored by:

Halifax General Insurance Services Limited

The Big Flood also contributes to Research Theme 4 "Sustaining the Coastal Zone" of the Tyndall Centre and is supported by FloodRiskNet and The U.K. Advisory Committee on Natural Disaster Reduction.

The Organising Committee for The Big Flood is:

• Dr Peter Baxter (Institute of Public Health, University of Cambridge)


• Dr Dougal Goodman (Risk Group, Foundation for Science and Technology)


• Professor Lord Julian Hunt (Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling, University College London; Delft University of Technology)


• Dr Ilan Kelman (who was then the Deputy Director, CURBE)


• Allan McRobie (Department of Engineering, University of Cambridge)


• Professor Robin Spence (Director, CURBE)


• Dr Tom Spencer (Director, Cambridge Coastal Research Unit)


• Professor Andrew Watkinson (School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia)

Estimates of past storm surge flood levels on the shingle sea defence at Salthouse, Norfolk.
(Copyright Ilan Kelman 2000.)

For more information on the outcomes of The Big Flood, please contact Robin Spence.

Plaque in Hunstanton, Norfolk.
(Copyright Ilan Kelman 2000.)